风险开始成片兑现：同源底座把保险的大数定律打穿传统保险依赖大数定律，风险单位彼此独立。你家着火不影响我家，某家工厂停产也不会让全球同一时刻一起停产。AI的危险在于把独立性改写成同源性，越来越多的企业依赖同一批基础模型、同一套API、同一云与同一工具链。风险开始像同一场事故，在不同公司、不同流程中被复制粘贴。险企担心的不是某一次聊天机器人犯错，而是一类错误在商业环境里被大规模复用后，带来成片索赔与不可控的责任敞口，于是排除条款开始成为行业趋势，甚至走向标准化。保险业语言里这叫同源聚合。这个触发源往往不是某个公司操作失误，而是更底层的东西，包括模型逻辑缺陷、训练数据污染、关键接口被注入、代理系统在相似指令下出现系统性越权等。一旦同源问题通过API分发扩散，下游成千上万应用可能在同一时间段出现相似失效。理赔就不再是点状事件，而是面状爆发。
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